A Deeper Dive into the Relationship between Search Volume and Disc Golf Participation
A deeper exploration of the relationship between Google search volume for disc golf and the rate of growth in the number of disc golf participants
Prior posts noted the probable positive correlation between changes in the volume of Google searches that included terms for disc golf and changes in the rate of growth of disc golf and explored what that correlation means for the near term growth of disc golf worldwide, in the US, and in the other major markets. This post takes a deeper dive into the nature of the relationship between Google search volume and the rate of growth of disc golf participation.
The change in the number of disc golf participants during any time period is a function of (1) the recruitment rate (i.e., the number of new people who start participating during that time period) and (2) the attrition rate (i.e, the number of people who stop participating during that time period). If the recruitment rate exceeds the attrition rate, the number of participants in the sport goes up; if the attrition rate exceeds the recruitment rate, the number of participants in the sport goes down. In The Relationship between Search Volume and Disc Golf Growth, I observed that increases in the volume of Google searches worldwide that included terms for disc golf were associated with an increase in the rate of growth in the number of PDGA active members (which was assumed to reflect the number of disc golf participants). This could mean that increases in the volume of Google searches that include terms for disc golf are associated with increases in the recruitment rate (increases in the number of new participants) or decreases in the attrition rate (decreases in the number of people who drop out) or both.
To get a better feel for how search volume could affect the recruitment rate or attrition rate for disc golf participants, let’s look at the groups of people who would make making the searches.
The Curious Public: people who don’t play disc golf, and aren’t necessarily planning on playing, but for some reason are curious about something related to the sport. The volume of searches made by this group are driven by (1) interactions with people who mention something about disc golf and (2) non-personal exposures to mentions about disc golf, such seeing an ESPN highlight or TikTok featuring disc golf or seeing a disc golf course. This is probably a fairly large group, whose size would increase as the sport of disc golf grows and would also fluctuate based on the amount of “buzz” around the sport. A small percentage of people who fall into this group will decide to try the sport. An increase in searches by the Curious Public would be associated with an increase in the number of people who may decide to try the sport and would thus result in an increase in the number of new participants; while a decrease in searches by the Curious Public would be associated with a decrease in the number of people who may decide to try the sport and would result in a decrease in the number of new participants.
Pre-Newbies: people who have decided to try disc golf but haven’t played yet. These people may be curious about all things disc golf, including equipment, courses and technique. This is probably a very small group but the one that, per capita, might generate the most searches that include terms for disc golf. An increase in searches by Pre-Newbies would obviously be associated with an increase in the number of new participants in the sport; while a decrease in searches by Pre-Newbies would be associated with a decrease in new participants in the sport.
Newbies: people who have recently started playing disc golf. Like pre-newbies, these people may be curious about all things disc golf, including equipment, courses and technique. This group probably also generates a high level of searches per capita. An increase in searches by Newbies would reflect an increase in the number of new participants in the sport; while a decrease in searches by Newbies would reflect a decrease in new participants in the sport.
Veterans: people who play disc golf but have not just recently started. This group is a significantly larger group than the prior two groups, but the members of the group very probably make fewer Google searches that include terms for disc golf per capita than people in the two prior groups because they have fewer questions about the sport and get a lot of the information they need from the disc golf websites that they are familiar with. An increase in searches by this Veterans would be associated with an increase in the number of existing participants in the sport, which would slightly lag an increase in the number of new participants.
Per the descriptions above, an increase in the volume of Google searches that include terms for disc golf by the first three groups (the Curious Public, Pre-Newbies and Newbies) would be expected to be associated with an increase in the number of new participants in the sport (i.e., an increase in the recruitment rate), while a decrease in the volume of such searches by those groups would be expected to be associated with a decrease in the number of new participants (i.e., a decrease in the recruitment rate). In terms of volatility, the size of the first three groups (and the volume of searches related to disc golf made by them) could be subject to short-term events and trends, while the the size of the Veterans group (and the volume of searches made by them) would be expected to rise or fall gradually over time based on cumulative recruitment and attrition. As a result, most of the short-term changes in the volume of Google searches that include terms for disc golf would be expected to be associated with the type of search volume that is associated with changes in the number of new participants.
Not surprisingly, there is a strong positive correlation between changes in the volume of Google searches worldwide that include terms for disc golf and changes in the number of new PDGA members (i.e., the recruitment rate).
A relationship also seems to exist between changes in search volume and changes in the PDGA membership attrition rate. However, the relationship appears to be more complicated and may operate in two somewhat conflicting ways. One way is that increased “buzz” around a sport and a surge of new participants (both correlated with an increase in search volume) may cause people who might otherwise drop out of the sport to say involved. In fact, there is a meaningful negative correlation between the volume of Google searches worldwide that include terms for disc golf and the PDGA membership attrition rate.
There is a second way, however, that search volume is related to the attrition rate. As noted above, an increase in the volume of Google searches worldwide that include terms for disc golf is correlated with an increase in the rate of PDGA new member recruitment. But, as Steve Dodge (founder of the DGPT) pointed out in a March 2024 podcast,1 the attrition rate among new PDGA members is higher than it is for long-standing PDGA members. So, there is reason to expect that an increase in the volume of Google searches worldwide that include terms for disc golf would be correlated with an increase, on a delayed basis, in the attrition rate. In fact, there is a meaningful positive correlation between the PDGA membership attrition rate and the percentage of PDGA members in the prior year who are new members.
If search volume is increasing, the negative correlation between search volume and attrition (fewer existing members dropping out due to the positive buzz) would offset the effect of the delayed positive correlation between search volume and attrition (new members having a high drop out rate). However, if, after a period of increasing search volume (and increasing numbers of new members), search volume starts to decline, the combination of a decline in “buzz” that kept hold of existing members and the high drop out rate for the large group of new members, would drive up the attrition rate. This pattern is exactly what happened with PDGA membership in 2021-2023. In 2021, when disc golf search volume and the addition of new members reached an all time high, the PDGA’s attrition rate went down to an all time low of 7.9%. However, by 2023, when the search volume (“buzz”) had declined and a lot of the new members added in the boom years dropped out, the PDGA’s attrition rate skyrocketed to 21%.2
Assuming that the percentage of all disc golf participants who are PDGA members was fairly constant during 2010-2023, the correlations between the volume of Google searches worldwide that include terms for disc golf and the growth in the number of PDGA members should also hold true for the growth in the number of disc golf participants generally. That would mean that the volume of Google searches for terms that include disc golf is related to the rate of growth of disc golf participation through both a correlation with the number of new participants (the rate of recruitment) and the number of participants who leave the sport (the rate of attrition). The volume of searches probably has a strong positive correlation with the number of new participants, but also a somewhat weaker, more complex correlation with the number of dropouts — its immediate effect is a negative correlation (i.e, higher search volume means fewer dropouts) but on a delayed basis it has a positive correlation (i.e., higher search volume means more dropouts) due to new participants dropping out at a higher rates.